Grand totals — Condos + Houses combined
Total active listings
5,271
-2% vs 5,400 last year
New listings YTD
1,239
-37% vs 1,959 last year
Under contract
591
-20% vs 735 last year
Units sold YTD
461
-25% vs 617 last year
Total sold volume
$248.4M
-22% vs $318.9M last year
Avg sale price
$538,875
+4% vs $516,782 last year
Condos — Year over year
Volume metrics
Price metrics
Condo neighborhoods — Year over year
| Area | Sold (T/L) | Vol YoY | Avg price | Price YoY | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centro South | 57 / 68 | -16% | $448,536 | -17% | Vol + price down |
| Centro North | 29 / 33 | -12% | $365,893 | -2% | Stable |
| Marina | 25 / 80 | -68% | $888,657 | +88% | Luxury shift |
| Francisco Villa West | 26 / 56 | -53% | $309,390 | +5% | Vol collapse |
| Bucerias | 36 / 53 | -32% | $493,691 | -10% | Softest area |
| Hotel Zone | 25 / 58 | -56% | $653,371 | +23% | Vol down, price up |
| Nuevo Vallarta West | 36 / 44 | -18% | $543,584 | +3% | Resilient |
| South Shore | 29 / 32 | -9% | $874,341 | +3% | Premium · holding |
| La Cruz de Huanacaxtle | 20 / 27 | -25% | $520,567 | -7% | Modest softness |
| Flamingos | 12 / 13 | -7% | $728,301 | +69% | Composition shift |
| Sayulita | 10 / 9 | +11% | $675,520 | +20% | Outperforming |
| Aramara | 14 / 21 | -33% | $352,886 | +22% | Price up, vol down |
Houses — Year over year
Volume metrics
Price metrics
Short-term rental market — the honest picture
Hotel occupancy recovering to 79% after Black Sunday is real and meaningful for the broader tourism narrative. But hotel occupancy and Airbnb occupancy are not the same story — and conflating the two does buyers a disservice. What hosts are reporting on the ground, and what you see walking around Old Town right now, is supported by the data.
The most current AirROI data puts market-wide Airbnb occupancy at 40.9% — not the 55–60% figure that circulates in investment marketing materials. That higher number reflects trailing 12-month averages that include last year’s stronger high season. The median property sits at 42% occupancy. The “average” return number is being pulled up by a small number of genuinely well-located, well-managed, top-reviewed properties. The median experience is considerably more modest.
Why PV inventory mechanics differ from North American markets
The 44% drop in new condo listings is notable data. But a direct assumption that fewer listings is suppressing prices — the way it would in a Canadian or US primary market — requires scrutiny. The historical evidence in this market does not support that mechanism cleanly: when listings spiked earlier this year and last year, prices did not fall. When listings drop now, prices have not meaningfully risen. The supply-demand price relationship that drives Canadian bidding wars simply does not operate the same way here.
Puerto Vallarta is structurally different from a primary residential market in almost every dimension that makes supply and demand mechanics work:
Primary market (Canada / USA)
PV secondary market
What actually moves prices in Puerto Vallarta is demand quality and confidence — not supply scarcity. The external factors that matter here are buyer sentiment about Mexico’s security narrative, the Canada-US dollar relationship, North American economic conditions, and the perceived lifestyle value of the destination. These are the variables to watch, not months-of-supply calculations.
Bottom line — Buyers & sellers
For buyers: This is the best entry environment since 2020. Volume is down, sellers are patient, and prices are stable. There is no urgency to overbid and no supply squeeze coming. The buyers who do best right now are those with clear criteria and a data-driven agent who can identify the difference between genuine value and a listing that has been sitting for 14 months because it is overpriced. If rental income is part of your thesis, model it at 42–50% occupancy — not the optimistic figures that circulate in developer presentations.
For sellers: The 96% SP/LP ratio tells you correctly-priced properties are still finding buyers. The 283-day average DOM tells you everything else about what happens when sellers price to aspiration rather than data. The market will not reward patience combined with optimistic pricing. Price to today’s reality and move — or accept that your listing will sit until market conditions shift.
